The Great Swiss Dump

WATCHES/INCOMING!

Swiss watchmakers are frantically shoving millions of francs’ worth of tourbillons, moonphases, and blinged-out Daytonas onto planes bound for JFK. In July, exports of Swiss watches to the U.S. surged 45%, not because Americans suddenly decided they can’t live without another Omega Speedmaster, but because Trump turned tariffs into the hottest complication of the season.

The Great Panic Dump

According to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, total exports in July hit 2.4 billion Swiss francs ($2.98 billion)—a nice headline until you realize it’s basically Switzerland hoarding receipts from one market before customs slaps on a tax the size of a Hublot case. Strip away the U.S. sugar rush and exports actually fell. Translation: the industry’s “growth” is about as authentic as a Canal Street Rolex. Since April, watches have carried a 10% tariff, but Trump decided July was the month to crank the rate up to 39%—because why settle for 31% when you can make Geneva sweat harder than a tourbillon at Baselworld?

Naturally, the industry’s spin doctors are busy telling us everything is fine. FH president Yves Bugmann assured the Wall Street Journal that America remains “a key market.” Of course it does—especially when you’ve just dumped six months of stock into it. And now, brands are already eyeing yet another round of price hikes. Apparently, $15,000 for a steel sports watch wasn’t aspirational enough. Luxury logic says: if sales soften, just tack on 12% and call it “rarity.” Something that is backfiring for Zegna, Gucci and Loro Piana.

So currently the U.S. market is a warehouse stuffed to the brim, China’s buyers are hungover, and luxury brands are talking price hikes like they’re hot yoga instructors raising the thermostat. Maybe now your Rolex Authorized Dealer will be a little nicer? Probably not.